Jakarta, Indonesia Sentinel — New Study shows that the global goal of limiting warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels is now almost unattainable. Using a trained AI system, scientists forecasted how high global temperatures could climb based on varying rates of decarbonization.
The findings published in Geophysical Research Letters, suggest that the hottest years ahead are likely to shatter existing temperature records. Researchers reported a 50% chance that global warming will breach the critical 2-degree Celsius threshold, even if humanity meets its current goal of reducing greenhouse gas emissions to net zero by the 2050s, according to a release by Stanford University.
Previous studies, including assessments from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), have suggested that rapid decarbonization could keep warming below 2 degrees Celsius. However, the new study indicates a grimmer outlook.
“We’ve been seeing accelerating impacts around the world in recent years, from heatwaves and heavy rainfall and other extremes,” said co-author Noah Diffenbaugh, a climate scientist at Stanford’s Doerr School of Sustainability. “This study suggests that, even in the best case scenario, we are very likely to experience conditions that are more severe than what we’ve been dealing with recently.”
How AI Refined the Predictions
In this study, researchers trained an AI system using extensive climate model simulations. To predict future temperature increases, the AI system incorporated actual historical temperature data alongside widely used scenarios for future greenhouse gas emissions.
“AI is emerging as an incredibly powerful tool for reducing uncertainty in future projections. It learns from the many climate model simulations that already exist, but its predictions are then further refined by real-world observations,” said co-author Elizabeth Barnes, a climate scientist at Colorado State University.
Warming Beyond 3 Degrees Celsius
Diffenbaugh, Barnes, and co-author Sonia Seneviratne of ETH Zurich, underscores the risks of uncontrolled emissions on a second study by published in Environmental Research Letters. The paper highlights that regions such as South Asia, the Mediterranean, Central Europe, and parts of sub-Saharan Africa could see temperatures exceed 3 degrees Celsius by 2060 if emissions continue to rise—a pace faster than anticipated in earlier studies.
The researchers also explored different decarbonization scenarios:
- In an optimistic scenario, where emissions reach net zero by the 2050s, the study found a 90% chance that the hottest year this century will be at least 1.8 degrees Celsius warmer than pre-industrial levels, with a 67% chance of surpassing 2.1 degrees.
- In a slower decarbonization scenario, where emissions fail to reach net zero until 2100, there is a 90% likelihood that the hottest year will be 3 degrees Celsius warmer than pre-industrial levels. Under these conditions, some regions could see temperature anomalies three times higher than those recorded in 2023.
Urgent Need for Adaptation Measures
The new findings of the global warming rate highlight the critical need for investments not only in decarbonization but also in adaptation strategies to strengthen resilience against extreme heat, drought, and heavy rainfall.
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Historically, adaptation efforts have taken a back seat to carbon reduction measures. Global climate finance has largely prioritized decarbonization, with legislation like the 2022 Inflation Reduction Act channeling significant investments toward cutting emissions.
“As we watched these severe impacts year after year, we became more and more interested in predicting how extreme the climate could get even if the world is fully successful at rapidly reducing emissions,” said Diffenbaugh
This AI-driven predictions serve as a stark reminder of the dual challenge ahead: accelerating decarbonization while investing in systems to withstand the worsening impacts of global warming.
(Raidi/Agung)
