Jakarta, Indonesia Sentinel — Following Donald Trump victory in the recent U.S. presidential election, thousands of bettors are awaiting a collective payout of $450 million from online betting markets sites, as reported by Reuters. Trump’s win brought a windfall to those who staked on his comeback in what became a highly polarized race.
Online election betting surged in the final weeks of the campaign, as Trump’s odds on “prediction markets” sharply diverged from polling data. The prediction markets became a hub for speculation, particularly among those skeptical of traditional polls, which suggested a closer race.
As it turned out, prediction markets proved more accurate, with Trump emerging as the victor in this fiercely competitive election. Supporters of these markets argue they offer a broader view of possible outcomes, capturing shifts in momentum, media impact, and breaking news that traditional polling can sometimes overlook.
Two of the largest of the prediction exchanges, offshore crypto-backed Polymarket and U.S.-based Kalshi, collectively managed around $450 million in election-related bets by Tuesday evening, according to data from both companies.
While Polymarket has not disclosed the exact number of participants, Kalshi reported that 28,000 individuals had placed bets on a potential Kamala Harris win, compared to 40,000 backing Trump.
Polymarket, backed by Peter Thiel’s Founders Fund, allows bets to continue until the market closes, with payouts expected to reach $287 million by Tuesday night. On Kalshi, bettors can place bets right up until Inauguration Day on January 20, 2025, with Kalshi’s payout pool reaching $159 million by Tuesday.
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Prediction markets operate differently from traditional sportsbooks. Instead of betting against a “house,” prediction market shares are established by creating agreements between opposing parties. Each side sets their stakes, with $1 reflecting the amount each is willing to risk on the outcome.
The biggest winner on Polymarket, a Paris-based investor known as the “Polymarket whale,” placed $40 million in bets tied to Trump’s victory. Should Trump continue to hold the majority of votes, this investor stands to walk away with a staggering $80 million. His significant bet came amid a surge in Trump’s odds on the platform, suggesting his hefty wager may have further fueled market momentum.
Prediction markets are once again gaining attention for their unique ability to gather real-time insights, offering a glimpse into public sentiment beyond the scope of traditional polls. With Trump now the clear winner, betting markets are expected to pay out huge sums to investors who backed his victory.
(Raidi/Agung)
