Jakarta, Indonesia Sentinel — The Meteorology, Climatology, and Geophysics Agency (BMKG) has issued early warning of prolonged extreme weather during Ramadan in Indonesia. Especially the extreme weather causing floods across the Greater Jakarta area (Jabodetabek) which expected to persist during the month of Ramadan.
Several areas in Jabodetabek were inundated on Tuesday (March 4) due to heavy rainfall and extreme weather in recent days. According to BMKG, these conditions are likely to continue until the second ten-day period of March, meaning through March 20.
BMKG Chief Dwikorita Karnawati stated that the ongoing extreme weather would subside briefly in the coming days but is expected to intensify again during the second ten-day period of March.
“The phenomenon will persist despite a temporary decline, but it appears to peak on March 11. Gradually, the intensity will rise again, potentially leading to more extreme weather conditions,” Dwikorita said during a virtual press conference on Tuesday (March 4).
Extreme Weather Peak Forecasted for March 11-20
Based on BMKG’s analysis, the peak of extreme weather is anticipated to occur between March 11 and 20. While between March 4 and 11, BMKG forecasts that heavy rainfall will continue across several parts of Indonesia, particularly in the western regions and the Papua Islands.
In its Weekly Weather Outlook for March 4-10, 2025, BMKG reported that floods and landslides had already affected Jambi, South Sumatra, West Java, Central Java, East Java, East Nusa Tenggara (NTT), and South Kalimantan between March 1 and 3.
“These hydrometeorological disasters remain a threat, especially in areas with high rainfall, coastal regions, and steep terrains,” BMKG warned.
Prolonged Extreme Weather Factors
The extreme weather triggering hydrometeorological disasters in various regions, including Jabodetabek, is attributed to multiple atmospheric dynamics that significantly increase rainfall potential.
These atmospheric dynamics include Equatorial Rossby waves, low-frequency atmospheric disturbances, and Kelvin waves, which are expected to remain active for at least another week. These factors are believed to enhance convective activity across Indonesia.
This phenomenon is further supported by cyclonic circulation patterns over the western waters of Aceh, the southwestern Indian Ocean off Bengkulu, and the southern coast of Papua. Additionally, strong local atmospheric instability is fostering cloud formation in several parts of the country.
“As a result, heavy rainfall is still likely to occur in multiple regions,” BMKG explained.
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BMKG Deputy for Meteorology Guswanto highlighted that the cyclonic circulation is slowing wind speeds and causing convergence in various maritime areas, including the Natuna Sea, Banda Sea, southern Sulawesi waters, Arafura Sea, and Maluku.
Additionally, wind confluence zones have been detected stretching across the Flores Sea, Banda Sea, Arafura Sea, and southern Papua.
End of Rainy Season
Dwikorita noted that the 2025 rainy season is expected to last through March, with much of Indonesia currently experiencing peak rainfall.
“The rainy season is forecasted to continue until late March 2025. April will mark the transition to the dry season. The peak of the rainy season across most parts of Indonesia occurred in January and February, meaning we are still facing the tail end of it,” she said in February.
BMKG’s 2024/2025 seasonal forecast also indicates that rainfall is expected to continue through late March in most of Indonesia. However, regions with monsoonal rainfall patterns may still experience precipitation through April or May 2025.
The agency also noted that there will be a shift of area affected by the extreme weather as the weather pattern may be changed. “The affected areas will shift, for example, from Sumatra to Jakarta, then to Central Java, East Java, Sulawesi, and back to Jakarta. So, the locations will continue to change,” she explained.
Dwikorita urged the public to remain vigilant against ongoing extreme weather conditions, which are impacting nearly all regions of the country.
(Raidi/Agung)
