Jakarta, Indonesia Sentinel — Indonesia state-owned gas company, PT Perusahaan Gas Negara Tbk (PGN), has raised alarms over a projected natural gas supply shortages in Sumatra and Java between 2025 and 2035, citing declining output from existing fields and limited new discoveries.
PGN President Director Arief S. Handoko said the deficit could reach as much as 513 million standard cubic feet per day (MMSCFD) by 2035.
“PGN’s gas balance profile for the 2025–2035 period shows a downward trend. This is increasingly concerning, as we expect shortages starting in 2025 and widening significantly to a projected minus 513 MMSCFD by 2035,” Arief staes during parliamentary hearing with the Commission XII in Jakarta on Monday (April 28).
The shortage, Arief said, is already underway as of 2025 and is primarily driven by natural production decline in mature gas fields. He explained that this decline has not been offset by significant new reserves or output from fresh discoveries.
PGN’s internal data forecasts natural gas shortages across Java and Sumatra are expected to begin in 2025 and persist through 2035. The decline will specifically affect several regions, including North Sumatra, South Sumatra, West Java, as well as Central and East Java.
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Shortages will starting to impact South and Central Sumatra, Lampung, and West Java by late 2025. Central and East Java are expected to experience deficits beginning in 2027, followed by North Sumatra in 2028.
Annual shortfalls are projected to grow sharply during the periods. The gas shortage for 2025 reached 177 MMSCFD, and continues to rises in 2026 with 239 MMSCFD, 2027: 369 MMSCFD, 2028: 390 MMSCFD, 2029: 259 MMSCFD.
Meanwhile, the shortage for 2030 will reached 349 MMSCFD, 2031: 465 MMSCFD, 2032: 516 MMSCFD, 2033: 524 MMSCFD, 2034: 534 MMSCFD, and in 2035 the shortage will reached 513 MMSCFD.
To address the natural gas shortages, Indonesia is considering alternative supply options, including the use of domestically regasified liquefied natural gas (LNG). However, Arief acknowledged that this strategy is not without challenges, especially in terms of pricing and the necessary infrastructure to support wider LNG distribution.
The warning underscores growing concerns about Indonesia’s long-term energy security as demand rises and legacy gas fields age.
(Raidi/Agung)
