Jakarta, Indonesia Sentinel — Indonesian Meteorology, Climatology, and Geophysics Agency (BMKG) forecast increased rainfall during the Christmas and New Year holiday season in Indonesia. The holiday season is expected to coincide with peak rainy season conditions, amplified by a weak La Niña phenomenon.
Dwikorita Karnawati, Head of BMKG, explained the weather conditions during a meeting with the Indonesian House of Representatives’ Commission V on Wednesday December 4.
“We are currently in the rainy season, with the peak expected in late December for parts of Sumatra and Java. In some regions, the peak will extend into January,” Dwikorita stated, as reported by CNN Indonesia.
Therefore, she emphasized that the holiday travel period for Christmas and New Year (Nataru) coincides with the height of the rainy season. She urged authorities to closely monitor the significant increase in rainfall, as it could disrupt travel and mobility during the Christmas and New Year holiday period, particularly in Sumatra and Java.
BMKG noted that in December, the peak of the rainy season will primarily affect parts of southern Java. By January, the heavy rainfall is expected to shift to central and northern Java.
Increased Rainfall
Dwikorita highlighted the role of a weak La Niña which potentially increasing rainfall by up to 20% above normal levels during this period. “The rainy season is accompanied by a weak La Niña, which could elevate rainfall by about 20% from typical levels,” she explained.
BMKG also pointed out two other weather phenomenon could further intensify rainfall in western Indonesia. The two phenomenon are cold air surges from Siberia and cloud clusters moving from the Indian Ocean.
The cold air surges could lead to heavy rain, strong winds, and high waves, conditions that previously caused severe flooding in Jakarta in January 2020. Dwikorita warned that under the worst-case scenario, these surges might trigger similar events.
“These surges can result in heavy rainfall, strong winds, and even high waves, increasing the risk of significant flooding,” she cautioned.
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Meanwhile, cloud clusters moving eastward from the Indian Ocean are also likely to enhance rainfall. Dwikorita expressed hope that these cloud formations will shift eastward by December 20-28, but she acknowledged the possibility of delays.
“Our calculations indicate that the clouds should move east by December 20-28. However, if their movement is delayed, heavy rainfall could persist over Java and surrounding areas until early January,” she said.
Seeing the potentially increased rainfall, Dwikorita urged authorities to prioritize preparedness, particularly in regions like Sumatra and Java, where rainfall could disrupt holiday mobility. BMKG will continue to monitor weather developments and provide updates to ensure public safety during the holiday season.
(Raidi/Agung)
