Jakarta, Indonesia Sentinel — NASA scientists have identified a newly detected asteroid that could potentially hit Earth in 2032. While the asteroid is not expected to cause global devastation, it has the potential to destroy an entire city.
According to Live Science, the asteroid designated as 2024 YR4, was first detected by NASA’s Asteroid Terrestrial-impact Last Alert System (ATLAS) on December 27, 2024. Researchers estimate that the asteroid has a 1-in-83 chance of striking Earth in 2032.
Measuring approximately 60 meters in width, 2024 YR4 is currently about 27 million miles from Earth. The near-Earth object (NEO) is projected to come as close as 106,200 kilometers to our planet on December 22, 2032. However, uncertainties in its orbital path leave open the possibility of a direct impact.
If it were to strike Earth, the asteroid could cause a massive atmospheric explosion or create a significant impact crater. Due to this risk, 2024 YR4 has been placed on both the European Space Agency’s NEO Risk List and NASA’s Sentry Risk Table.
Impact Estimation
Scientists estimate that an impact from the asteroid could release approximately 8 megatons of energy—over 500 times the power of the atomic bomb dropped on Hiroshima.
David Rankin, an engineer with the Catalina Sky Survey, described 2024 YR4 as one of the largest space rocks ever found with such a high probability of collision.
The asteroid was initially discovered by NASA-funded ATLAS telescopes in Río Hurtado, Chile, and later confirmed by data from the Catalina Sky Survey.
Although 2024 YR4 is currently moving away from Earth, it is expected to pass close to the planet multiple times over the next several decades. In 2028, the asteroid will approach within 8 million kilometers, allowing astronomers to refine their size and trajectory estimates.
Nasa Prediction
NASA’s calculations indicate that December 22, 2032, will present the highest risk of impact. Given these factors, 2024 YR4 has been classified as a Level 3 threat on the Torino Impact Hazard Scale, which measures asteroid impact risks. According to scientists, objects at this level require “public and governmental attention if the encounter is within a decade.”
However, most asteroids initially assigned to this category are later downgraded to Level 0, meaning the likelihood of impact is either zero or so low that it is considered negligible. This is why NASA and other space agencies continue to develop asteroid deflection strategies, such as the Double Asteroid Redirection Test (DART) mission.
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While the chances of a catastrophic asteroid impact remain low, astronomers stress the importance of continuous monitoring of potentially hazardous objects. Though 2024 YR4 is unlikely to trigger a mass extinction event like the meteors that wiped out the dinosaurs 66 million years ago, scientists will closely track its movements as it returns toward Earth.
