Jakarta, Indonesia Sentinel — Indonesia’s government and parliament have agreed on the 2026 Macroeconomic Assumptions, which will serve as the foundation for drafting the 2026 State Budget (RAPBN).
The decision was reached during a working meeting of the House of Representatives’ Commission XI with Finance Minister Sri Mulyani Indrawati on Monday (July 7, 2025).
Also in attendance were National Development Planning Minister Rachmat Pambudy, Bank Indonesia Governor Perry Warjiyo, and Financial Services Authority (OJK) Chairman Mahendra Siregar.
Chairman of Commission XI, Mukhamad Misbakhun, confirmed that lawmakers had decided not to revise the figures proposed in the government’s Macroeconomic Framework and Fiscal Policy Guidelines (KEM-PPKF).
“Following the working committee’s review and internal discussions, we’ve agreed to adopt the same figures outlined in the KEM-PPKF,” Misbakhun said in Jakarta, as reported by Antara.
Under the agreed framework, Indonesia’s economic growth for 2026 is projected to range between 5.2% and 5.8%, with inflation targeted between 1.5% and 3.5%. The rupiah exchange rate is assumed to remain between IDR 16,500 and IDR 16,900 per U.S. dollar. The budget deficit is set at 2.53% of GDP.
In addition to macroeconomic indicators, the government and Commission XI also approved key social welfare targets, including benchmarks for unemployment, poverty, and extreme poverty.
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Finance Minister Sri Mulyani emphasized that these assumptions will guide the formulation of the 2026 state budget, helping the government respond more effectively to global economic challenges.
The complete list of agreed macroeconomic indicators for 2026 includes:
- Economic Growth: 5.2% – 5.8%
- Inflation Rate: 1.5% – 3.5%
- Exchange Rate: IDR 16,500 – IDR 16,900 per USD
- State Budget Deficit (to GDP): 2.53%
- 10-Year Government Bond Yield (SBN): 6.6% – 7.2%
- Open Unemployment Rate: 4.44% – 4.96%
- Poverty Rate: 6.5% – 7.5%
- Extreme Poverty Rate: 0% – 0.5%
- Gini Ratio: 0.377 – 0.380
- Human Capital Index: 0.57
- Indonesia Crude Oil Price (ICP): $60 – $80 per barrel
- Oil Lifting: 600,000 – 605,000 barrels per day
- Gas Lifting: 953,000 – 1,017,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day
The agreement marks a critical first step in preparing a state budget that is not only targeted but also adaptive to shifting global and domestic economic dynamics.
(Raidi/Agung)
